![]() And these undervaluations persist even after a period in which the financial system as a whole gained about $1.9 trillion (more than 20 percent) in market cap from February 2020 to October 2021. Banks are trading at about 1.0 times book value, versus 3.0 times for all other industries and 1.3 times for financial institutions excluding banks, with 47 percent of banks trading for less than the equity on their books. The challenges facing a capital-intensive industry in a low-price environment also show up in valuations. In fact, the almost $2.8 trillion of capital that was injected by shareholders and governments into banking over the past 13 years eroded three to four percentage points of ROE. ![]() In an industry that has high capital requirements and is operating amid low interest rates, creating value for shareholders is structurally challenging. Cause for concern is evident in banks’ performance on two yardsticks: ROE, a measure of current profitability, and market-to-book value, a leading indicator of how capital markets value banking.įifty-one percent of banks operate with an ROE below cost of equity (COE), and 17 percent are below COE by more than four percentage points. ![]() But can we say a bright and smooth future lies ahead for banks and their shareholders? Not really. The banking system is at least as solid as it was before the pandemic-and much healthier than after the last crisis. Digital banking accelerated, cash use fell, savings expanded, remote became a way of working, and environment and sustainability are now top of mind for customers and regulators. ( A PDF of the full 2021 McKinsey Global Banking Annual Review, with more detailed data, and a set of strategic questions for banks, is available for download on this page.)īut if the pandemic has not had the expected harmful financial effects on the global banking industry, it has certainly had plenty of others. ROE in 2020 was 6.7 percent-less than the cost of equity but still a better showing than expected and above the 4.9 percent observed in 2008 in the aftermath of the financial crisis. In fact, bank profitability held up better than most analysts expected. Unlike the previous economic crisis, this time banks did not witness any abnormal losses, material capital calls, or “white knight” acquisitions.
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